Midseason Hop Outlook: Market & Crop Updates

The Roza Canal supplies water to over 20,000 acres in the Yakima Valley. On July 14th, the irrigation district released an update stating the canal is only at 42% of its yearly average.

At the bottom of this article is a production update and important key takeaways for this year’s crop. 

For the last few years, hop acreage has declined, and this year is no different. 

The USDA released the annual Hop Acreage Strung report in early June, which showed total planted acres down to 42,231 from 44,793 in 2024 – an overall decrease of about six percent.

Notably, Oregon's acreage surpassed Idaho's by just over 300 acres. Southwestern Idaho had been the second-largest hop-producing region for years, followed by Oregon’s Willamette Valley.

Often, growers will omit variety-specific acreage if they are the primary or singular producer “to avoid disclosure of individual operations.” A few years ago, you might recall seeing a surge of Helios planted – an alpha variety from Hopsteiner. However, in this year’s report, Helios does not show total acreage in Idaho or Washington.

The first several years of acreage adjustments came in big swaths targeting the entirety of U.S. hop acres. However, the industry is now beginning to tailor adjustments more nimbly to specific varieties based on their performance in the market.

For example, HBC varieties such as Citra and Mosaic experienced significant decreases from 2022 to 2024. Now, Citra acreage has increased in all three states. Mosaic is relatively neutral with slight increases in Idaho and Oregon and a small decrease in Washington.

Since 2022, Cascade acreage has declined by 48 percent. In four years, nearly 50 percent of all Cascade acreage has either been idled or replaced. 

The hop cycle has ebbed and flowed for decades. The difference between the ‘70s and ‘80s downturns and now is the number of craft breweries. Hop usage has increased with an average hopping rate hovering around 1.4 lbs per barrel, per the Brewers Association.

Years of surpluses followed by drastic declines only lead to one outcome, and one that is predictable as part of the hop cycle, shortages. This isn’t a scare tactic, but it is what naturally happens when supply levels are diminished so significantly and contracts are not in place to secure future crop volumes.

Prior crop year inventory is decreasing, and hop farmers are growing less volume on spot. If there is no contract, the burden to grow, harvest, process, and store hops is extremely challenging given the current market.

With these market challenges also come potential environmental issues that appear throughout the growing season. The Yakima Valley is experiencing a drought. While many growers can mitigate water issues with creative solutions, the cost and burden to do so has increased.

Twice in the last four years, Yakima has experienced a cool May followed by a heat bubble in early June. Temperatures rose 100+ degrees F. 

In 2023, varieties like Centennial and Simcoe experienced split bloom, meaning hop cones began forming too early. This led to a mix of mature and juvenile cones developing and ripening at different times. Yields were down, and quality was mixed across all growers.

Split bloom happens for one main reason. Hops have two stages: vegetative and reproductive. Ideally, a temperamental May with moderate increases in temperature in June signals to the plant to vegetate and grow to the top of the wire.

By late June, the heat begins to increase, and the plant enters the reproductive stage and will begin to make burrs, which eventually turn into cones. But if this temperature pattern happens earlier in the summer, like it did this year, split bloom can occur.

This year, Centennial is showing some split bloom, but not nearly as severe as in past years. Overall, growers are expecting “average to average-minus” yields for Centennial. The performance, however, will vary widely depending on the grower and growing region. Fields in Moxee and Wenas are tracking close to normal, while the Toppenish area appears to be struggling.

For most other varieties, the crop looks very typical — nothing remarkable, but nothing alarming either. It’s shaping up to be an “average” year across the board.

One notable issue is the large number of potted plants that were planted in the ground this spring. These young plants are expected to underperform significantly, which could impact supply for certain varieties. Many of these potted or baby plants include Talus, Loral, Pekko, and even some Citra.

Key Takeaways:

• Centennial: Yields expected to be average to average-minus with variability across regions. Moxee and Wenas fields look normal; Toppenish is struggling.

• Simcoe & Centennial positions: Review your supply, as early bloom challenges could impact availability depending on the growing district.

• Cascade: Consider your position given the sharp acreage decline, nearly 50% lost in four years. Check in with suppliers if you have not contracted Cascade.

• Potted/baby plants: Many newly planted fields (Talus, Loral, Pekko, Citra) will underperform this year. Check your position if these are in your supply chain.

• Overall crop: Aside from these concerns, most varieties are tracking toward a very typical, average year.

Questions? Email Claire Desmarais, brand and sales manager, at claire@clsfarms.com.